The South Caucasus is once again on the verge of war as Armenia and Azerbaijan are still unable to sign a much-awaited peace treaty. In spite of positive declarations from Yerevan and Baku, the two countries have yet to put the past behind them, with ceasefire breaches piling up and tensions running high.
In December 2023, both Armenia and Azerbaijan released a joint statement, realizing a "historic opportunity to make a long-desired peace in the region." Nevertheless, the long-awaited peace agreement did not happen by the end of the year. According to Russian sources, the two sides may conclude a peace accord in the near future, yet the role of the Kremlin as a peacemaker is far from clear.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also met to discuss agenda items on peace during the informal Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in St. Petersburg. This meeting, though, doesn't necessarily suggest that Russia will be an important player in facilitating the peace process. Indeed, Baku and Yerevan appear reluctant to remain in Russia's geostrategic sphere.
Key Challenges to Peace
Territorial Conflicts: The Nagorno-Karabakh area continues to be the central area of conflict with both Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting numerous wars to control the area. The area is recognized globally as belonging to Azerbaijan but has a majority ethnic Armenian population.
Corridor Construction: Azerbaijan plans to construct the Zangezur corridor, linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia's Syunik province. The action would have the potential to semi-surround Iran, which has declared that keeping its border with Armenia is a red line.
Military Build-up: Both nations are bolstering their military strength, with Azerbaijan spending more than $3.77 billion on defense and national security spending in 2024, a 6% rise from 2023. Armenia, meanwhile, is diversifying its military alliances, including with India, to decrease its reliance on Russia.
Shifting Alliances
Armenia is proactively looking for new security allies, such as the United States, Britain, and India, signaling a shift away from its historic dependence on Russia. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is building military alliances with Pakistan, India's mortal enemy. This intricate system of allegiances makes the peace process even more complicated.
The Road Ahead
Even when Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace agreement, it will take years before they normalize relations. The entrenched hatred and historical trauma between the two countries make reconciliation a long and difficult process. People-to-people peace-building programs, aimed at building dialogue, leadership, and cooperation, can be the key to lasting peace in the region ¹ ².